2013 yilgi Avstraliya federal saylovlari uchun saylovdan keyingi sarkaç - Post-election pendulum for the 2013 Australian federal election

Shuningdek qarang: 2016 yilgi Avstraliya federal saylovlari uchun saylovoldi mayatnik
Shuningdek qarang: 2016 yilgi Avstraliya federal saylovlari uchun saylovdan keyingi sarkaç

Koalitsiya g'olib bo'ldi 2013 yilgi federal saylov hozirgi 17 o'rinli, 3,65 punktga mo'ljallangan 150 ta pastki o'rindiqning 90 tasi bilan ikki tomonlama 6 yillik mehnat hukumatini mag'lubiyatga uchratish. Leyboristlar esa 55 o'ringa ega crossbenchers qolgan beshtasini ushlab turing. The Fairfax bo'limi [1] e'lon qilingan oxirgi o'rin edi.

O'rindiqlarni marginal, juda xavfsiz yoki xavfsiz deb tasniflash mustaqil tomonidan qo'llaniladi Avstraliya saylov komissiyasi quyidagi ta'rifdan foydalangan holda: "Agar g'olib chiqqan partiya ovozlarning 56 foizidan kamini oladigan bo'lsa, joy" marginal ", 56-60 foizi" juda xavfsiz "va 60 foizdan ortig'i" xavfsiz "deb tasniflanadi. "[2]

Mayatnik

The Mackerras mayatnik avstraliyalik tomonidan o'ylab topilgan psixolog Malkom Makerras o'rtasida bo'lib o'tgan saylov natijalarini bashorat qilish usuli sifatida ikki yirik partiya a Vestminster uslubi pastki uy kabi qonun chiqaruvchi organ Avstraliya Vakillar palatasi tarkibiga kiradi bir kishilik saylovchilar va qaysi foydalanadi imtiyozli ovoz berish kabi tizim Kondorset usuli yoki IRV.

Mayatnik parlamentdagi barcha o'rindiqlarni bir tekis qilib ishlaydi hukumat, muxolifat va o'zaro faoliyat skameykalar ga ko'ra foizli punkt marja ular ikki tomonning ustunlik asosida o'tkaziladi. Bu shuningdek belanchak qo'lning o'zgarishi uchun o'rindiq uchun talab qilinadi. Muxolifat yoki hukumat partiyalariga bir xil belanchak berilganligini hisobga olib, qo'l almashadigan o'rindiqlar sonini taxmin qilish mumkin.

HOKIMIY O'RINLAR
Marginal
Barton (NSW)Nikolas VarvarisLIB50.31
Petri (Qld)Lyuk XovartLNP50.53
Eden-Monaro (NSW)Piter XendiLIB50.61
Dobell (NSW)Karen MaknamaraLIB50.68
Uloqcha (Qld)Mishel LandriLNP50.77
Reid (NSW)Kreyg LauniLIB50.85
O'Konnor (VA)Rik UilsonLIB50,95 V NWA
Lyons (Tas)Erik XatchinsonLIB51.22
Sulaymon (NT)Natasha GriggsCLP51.40
Banklar (NSW)Devid KoulmanLIB51.83
Hindmarsh (SA)Mett UilyamsLIB51.89
Sahifa (NSW)Kevin XoganNAT52.52
Breddon (Tas)Bret UaytliLIB52.56
Gilmor (NSW)Ann SudmalisLIB52.65
Lindsay (NSW)Fiona SkottLIB52.99
Robertson (NSW)Lyusi UiksLIB53.00
Deakin (Vik)Maykl SukkarLIB53.18
Bonner (Qld)Ross VastaLNP53.69
Korangamit (Vik)Sara XendersonLIB53.94
Durak (VA)Melissa PriceLIB53.98 V NVA
La Trobe (Vik)Jeyson VudLIB54.01
Bass (tas)Endryu NikolichLIB54.04
Brisben (Qld)Tereza GambaroLNP54.28
Ford (Qld)Bert van ManenLNP54.38
Macquarie (NSW)Luiza MarkusLIB54.48
Xaslak (VA)Ken VaytLIB54.87
Dunkli (Vik)Bryus BillsonLIB55.57
Leyxardt (Qld)Uorren EntschLNP55.68
Juda xavfsiz
Gerbert (Qld)Even JonsLNP56.17
Malli (Vik)Endryu BrodNAT56.21 V LIB
Flinn (Qld)Ken O'DowdLNP56.53
Oqqush (WA)Stiv IronsLIB56.53
Dikson (Qld)Piter DuttonLNP56.72
Longman (Qld)Vayt RoyLNP56.92
Boothby (SA)Endryu SautkottLIB57.12
Keysi (Vik)Toni SmitLIB57.17
Kovan (VA)Luqo SimpkinsLIB57.46
Douson (Qld)Jorj KristensenLNP57.58
Bennelong (NSW)Jon AleksandrLIB57.77
Pirs (VA)Xristian PorterLIB58.06
Aston (Vik)Alan TudjLIB58.20
Rayan (Qld)Jeyn PrentisLNP58.54
Bowman (Qld)Endryu LamingLNP58.86
Xinkler (Qld)Keyt PittLNP59.04
Fisher (Qld)Mal BroughLNP59.75
Paterson (NSW)Bob BolduinLIB59.78
Xiggins (Vik)Kelly O'DwyerLIB59.93
Xavfsiz
Vannon (Vik)Dan TehanLIB60.07
Shturt (SA)Kristofer PeynLIB60.08
Stirling (WA)Maykl KinanLIB60.30
Xyuz (NSW)Kreyg KelliLIB60.67
Goldshteyn (Vik)Endryu RobbLIB61.03
Kooyong (Vik)Josh FraydenbergLIB61.06
Makartur (NSW)Rassel MathesonLIB61.36
Xyum (NSW)Angus TeylorLIB61.47
Kovper (NSW)Lyuk XarsuykerNAT61.71
Konserva (WA)Don RandallLIB61.81
Flinders (Vik)Greg XantLIB61.81
McMillan (Vik)Rassel BroadbentLIB61.83
Rayt (Qld)Scott BuchholzLNP61.84
Mur (VA)Yan GoodenoughLIB61.86
Forrest (VA)Nola MarinoLIB62.28
Mayo (SA)Jeymi BriggsLIB62.51
McPherson (Qld)Karen EndryusLNP63.00
Keng Bay (Qld)Uorren TrussLNP63.16
Kulrang (SA)Rowan RamseyLIB63.54
Fadden (Qld)Styuart RobertLNP64.36
Menzies (Vik)Kevin EndryusLIB64.45
Yangi Angliya (NSW)Barnabi JoysNAT64.46 V IND
Tangni (VA)Dennis JensenLIB64.67
Layn (NSW)Devid GillespiNAT64.77
Warringah (NSW)Toni EbbotLIB65.35
Gippsland (Vik)Darren ChesterNAT65.84
Shimoliy Sidney (NSW)Djo XokkeyLIB65.89
Ish haqi (NSW)Jon KobbNAT65.97
Kuk (NSW)Skott MorrisonLIB66.35
Kuyov (Qld)Yan MakfarlanLNP66.47
Barker (SA)Toni PasinLIB66.55
Kurtin (VA)Julie BishopLIB67.42
Farrer (NSW)Sussan LeyLIB67.43
Ventuort (NSW)Malkom TernbullLIB67.72
Monkrieff (Qld)Stiven CioboLNP67.95
Makkellar (NSW)Bronvin BishopiLIB68.84
Berovra (NSW)Filipp RudkLIB69.07
Bredfild (NSW)Pol FletcherLIB70.78
Myurrey (Vik)Sharman StounLIB70.87
Riverina (NSW)Maykl MakkormakNAT71.17
Mitchell (NSW)Aleks XokLIB72.08
Maranoa (Qld)Bryus SkottLNP72.28
Parkes (NSW)Mark KultonNAT72.35
Hukumatga tegishli bo'lmagan o'rindiqlar
Marginal
Makeven (Vik)Rob MitchellALP50.15
Parramatta (NSW)Julie OuensALP50.57
Lingiari (NT)Uorren SnoudonALP50.88
Bendigo (Vik)Liza ChesterlarALP51.26
Lilley (Qld)Ueyn SvanALP51.32
Moreton (Qld)Grem PerretALP51.55
Chisholm (Vik)Anna BurkeALP51.60
Bryus (Vik)Alan GriffinALP51.80
Verriva (NSW)Lauri FergyusonALP52.24
Kingsford Smit (NSW)Mett TistletvaytALP52.74
Brend (WA)Gari GreyALP52.88
Grinvay (NSW)Mishel RoulendALP52.98
Richmond (NSW)Jyustin ElliotALP52.98
Griffit (Qld)Kevin RudALP53.01
Jagajaga (Vik)Jenni MaklinALP53.13
Ueykfild (SA)Nik chempioniALP53.40
Melburn portlari (Vik)Maykl DanbiALP53.56
Ovchi (NSW)Djoel FitsgibbonALP53.67
Oksley (Qld)Berni RipollALP53.77
Ayzaks (Vik)Mark DreyfusALP53.86
Adelaida (SA)Keyt EllisALP53.95
Pert (VA)Alannah MacTiernanALP54.35
Fremantle (VA)Melissa ParkeALP54.77
Rankin (Qld)Jim ChalmersALP54.78
Ballarat (Vic)Ketrin KingALP54.89
Makin (SA)Toni ZappiyaALP55.06
Franklin (Tas)Julie KollinzALP55.09
Bler (Qld)Shayne NeumannALP55.26
McMahon (NSW)Kris BouenALP55.32
Juda xavfsiz
Vatson (NSW)Toni BurkALP56.81
Kanberra (ACT)Gai BrodtmannALP56.98
Shotland (NSW)Jil XollALP57.21
Xotem (Vik)Kler O'NilALP57.27
Corio (Vik)Richard MarlesALP57.75
Trossbi (NSW)Stiven JonsALP57.77
Nyukasl (NSW)Sharon KleydonALP58.83
Xolt (Vik)Entoni ByornALP59.09
Charlton (NSW)Pat KonroyALP59.23
Kingston (SA)Amanda RishvortALP59.70
Kanningxem (NSW)Sharon BirdALP59.88
Xavfsiz
Chifley (NSW)Ed XusichALP60.55
Betmen (Vik)Devid FeniALP60,61 V GRN
Maribyrnong (Vik)Bill qisqartirishALP61.39
Blaxlend (NSW)Jeyson KlerALP61.43
Lalor (Vik)Joanne RayanALP62.16
Freyzer (ACT)Endryu LeyALP62.62
Kelluell (Vik)Mariya VamvakinouALP63.86
Port Adelaida (SA)Mark ButlerALP64.02
Skullin (Vik)Endryu GilesALP64.35
Sidney (NSW)Tanya PlibersekALP64.65
Vasiyat (Vic)Kelvin TomsonALP65,20 V GRN
Gorton (Vik)Brendan O'KonnorALP66.12
Gellibrand (Vik)Tim UottsALP66.53
Fowler (NSW)Kris XeysALP66.80
Grayndler (NSW)Entoni AlbanesALP70.34
CROSS BENCH O'RINLAR
Fairfax (Qld)Kliv PalmerPUP50.03 v LNP
Indi (Vik)Keti MakgovanIND50.25 v LIB
Kennedi (Qld)Bob KaterKAP52.19 v LNP
Melburn (Vik)Adam BandtGRN55.91 v ALP
Denison (Tas)Endryu UilkiIND65.51 v ALP

Adabiyotlar

  1. ^ "Vakillar Palatasi birinchi bo'limining afzalliklari", Virtual Tally Room 2013, Avstraliya saylov komissiyasi. Qabul qilingan 30 oktyabr 2013 yil.
  2. ^ "Bo'lim tasnifi - Vakillar Palatasi - O'rindiqlarning qisqacha mazmuni"., Virtual Tally Room 2013, Avstraliya saylov komissiyasi. Qabul qilingan 30 oktyabr 2013 yil.